The RB position is hands down the hardest position to roster. For one, they drop like flies due to a plethora of injuries. If you look at the top 10 picks by ADP last season, you would see several of those backs sat out multiple games. These past 2 seasons we have seen a wave we have never witnessed before.
NFL teams have been inconvenienced with injuries so much that we are moving into a world where the bellcow back days are close to extinction. Only 3 RBs last season saw more then 70% of its teams snap count at the position. This has made researching and strategizing more vital then ever.
Luckily for you I have done extensive research on RBs that are currently being drafted after the first 5 rounds where value is evident. These 3 RBs who can be found roughly in the middle of your drafts have the ability to outproduce current ADPs.
AJ Dillon ADP 59
We can debate whether 59th overall constitutes as a mid round pick but judging by his ADP he has been going in some drafts beginning of the 6th round. If you have not listened to our Preseason QB Rankings podcast yet CLICK HERE because we discuss Aaron Rodgers and go into depth about our views on both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon this season.
Davante Adams is gone who accounted for 32.2% of Rodgers’ competitions, 34.7% of his passing yards and 34.1% of his passing touchdowns in the past 2 seasons. Who is going to make up that volume currently on the roster? Rookie Christian Watson? Sammy Watkins? The answer is no one as GB under LaFleur has slowly been leaning on its rushing attack whether you want to hear it or not. The past 3 seasons Rodgers pass attempts have declined and the RB usage has been a staple in the GB offense despite Rodgers back to back MVPs.
Dillons overall numbers will obviously not rank amongst the top of the leagues when running alongside Aaron Jones but from an efficiency standpoint he ranks amongst the best. AJ had the 22nd most touches in the NFL last year while accumulating over 1100 yards and 7 TDs. Not bad for a “backup”. While Aaron Jones is clearly the starting RB the Packers feel more comfortable with Dillons physical running style to the point of making him the lead ball carrier over Jones. He also led the Packers in redzone carries, which he only made out with 5 rushing scores. An increase in total TDs is in store for the man who ranked 11th in missed tackles.
Dillon got off to a slow start last year, but from week 5 on he was 🔥 🔥 🔥. Weeks 5-17 he finished as a RB2 or better in more then half of those games. With the status of the Packers offense, it’s clear as day they will utilize RBs even more then last year with potential of Dillon finishing the year as a high end RB2. Not bad for a guy who is being drafted as the 25th overall RB.
Tony Pollard ADP 80
We spoke of AJ Dillons efficiency last season, so you know damn well we have to praise Pollards. For RBs who had at least 130 carries, Pollard ranked 4th in rushing yards after contact per attempt last season and had an 85% catch rate on 46 targets. Ezekiel Elliot put together a full season but Pollard was clearly the better player out of the backfield. His numbers in each season have increased every year and my gut says it goes up plenty more.
The worry here is Elliots usage. He is the starter for Dallas, who stayed relatively healthy last year and is owed a lot of money. If you dialed in on Dallas games, you would see Pollard was the more successful of the two while Elliot struggled to create extra yardage on his runs. Where Elliot clearly outperformed Pollard was in the red zone where Elliot received 67% of RB carries scoring 10 TDs to Pollards 1.
Nonetheless, Pollard was a huge part of the Cowboys success and where I see him flourishing even more for the 2022 season is through the passing game. With Cooper traded and Gallup recovering from an ACL tear, reports are Pollard could see ample time out of the slot. This means two things with the first being a huge uptick in targets. The 2nd being more playing time. Regardless if Pollard doesnt line up at times at the slot position, with the departures and injuries to the offense Pollard is for sure to see more playing time.
If that isn’t motivation enough for you, the younger back to Elliot by several years is in a contract year. Pollard can smell the money he potentially could be cashing in for in the 2023 season. Pollard finished last season as the RB28 and currently sits at an ADP of 80. He is the 31st RB being taken off the boards and feel he has the potential to steal the show from a declining and disappointed Zeke. His ceiling is 1000% worth where you can be drafting him.
Melvin Gordon ADP 97
This one hurts because of my love for Javonte. Last season I called for Williams to take over the realm of starting RB halfway through the season and sail off into the sunset. While Williams was a hot commodity, Gordon never let off the gas. The Broncos made the right call keeping Gordon a vital part of their attack and made another wise call of resigning him.
When the 2021 season was all said and done, would you believe me that Williams (who is being drafted at the beginning of 2nd round) and Gordon both finished with 203 carries? This was with Gordon playing one less game than the rookie. Would you also believe me if I told you that Gordon posted double digit TDs? At 28 Gordon had a hell of a season finishing as the RB21. He led the red zone usage between the two and will be an important part of the Broncos attack next season.
There are however some question marks for Gordon who is a former first round fantasy pick. He is turning 29 which is relatively old for a RB and it showed in the receiving game. Gordon had his worst statistical year through the air and has his lowest targets ever in a season. Williams is the flashier player of the two and projects to put up big time numbers this season, but does this justify Gordon going in the 9th/10th round? All season we felt Williams would fully take over the running load and he never did. We have to assume Williams sees an uptick but how high? As the 35th RB being drafted SIGN ME UP!
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