First base has quickly become one of the shallowest positions in fantasy baseball. A lot of the experts out there are advising fantasy baseballers to invest in a first basemen within the first couple rounds of the draft. There are some obvious picks, some middle of the round guys, and of course some sleepers and steals. Today we are going to rank all the first basemen worthy of drafting this year. Pay close attention and save these rankings for draft day!
1. Freddie Freeman ATL: The 29 year franchise corner stone is smack dab in the middle of his prime and has been a great option for fantasy players for the last two years. Freeman is an absolute lock for you when it comes to average, runs, and RBI, no question. His OPS dipped into the high 800’s last year after two consecutive seasons of being over .900. This is concerning for some, but I would point out that Freeman actually playing all 162 games last year contributed to this dip. Freeman is surrounded by much more talent than he ever has been in his career providing solid protection in the lineup for him, and consistent RBI chances. You can feel comfortable drafting Freeman as early as the late 2nd/Early 3rd rounds.
2. Paul Goldschmidt STL: There obviously is not much that needs to be said about Goldy that we all do not know already. the guy is an absolute stud and someone who could easily be ranked #1 in our rankings. Just when you think this guy is going to fall off, he doesn’t. Coming off another great year with a slash line off .290/.922/32/83 the perennial MVP candidate was shipped off to St. Louis in a trade this off season. The Cardinals are getting a Goldy who is still in his prime, and has the potential to help lead this team to the playoffs. Expect Goldschmidt’s RBI’s to jump from 83 to 100+ and feel comfortable drafting him as early as the 3rd round.
3. Rhys Hoskins PHI: The young Philly farm product with a stupid ass name comes in at #3 here. Hoskins is proving to all the non believers that he is one of the best young players in baseball. He is a guy that won’t help you out when it comes to average, but pays major dividends in homeruns, RBI, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Hoskins played his first full season with the Phillies and took the field for 154 of 162 games. The 25 year old is eligible at OF in most leagues as well, but he is best used as a 1Bin fantasy. Hoskins has potential to knock on the door of the Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt in a few years, and you could get him for a very decent price. I would feel extremely good about taking Hoskins 3rd round.
4. Cody Bellinger LAD: Bellinger is a guy who has only played 2 seasons in the majors. He took the world by storm in his rookie campaign bashing homers seemingly every other at bat. Last season was a disappointment for owners who picked the youngster as high as the second round. He finished with a .814 OPS almost 120 points less than his rookie season. Bellinger did still show flashes of his immense power still going yard 25 times in 2018. Drafting Bellinger this year means you are drafting the potential this kid has, and the opportunity to own him when he truly breaks out. The Dodgers off season has been crazy, and they may even bring in Bryce Harper, but as of now they have made one thing clear; Bellinger is the future of this franchise. He has all the tools to be top fantasy player, minus the average, and is poised to break out this year for 35+ homers. Draft Bellinger somewhere in the mid 4th/early 5th and watch your gamble pay off big time.
5. Anthony Rizzo CHC: Rizzo is a guy that you are always waiting to finally bust out and take the mantle as the top first baseman in the league. Here were are smack dab in the middle of his prime, and we have yet to see a true breakout season from him. After suffering through dreadful stretches in the first half of the year in 2018, Rizzo rebounded and managed to save his season by going .283/.846/25/105. If I would have told you in May he would ended up with those totals you would have spit in my face. I still like Rizzo and would gladly spend a 4th round pick on him. But this is the season where he either takes off and finally has that MVP caliber year, or it is just more of the same. Either way, Rizzo is a safe pick with upside.
6. Daniel Murphy COL: Here at GrandCentralFantasy.com we are very well aware of Daniel Murphy. The ten year veteran is considered by many to be a Mets Legend who should have never been allowed to leave New York. Murphy did leave however and had solid campaigns in Washington D.C. and Chicago (mostly D.C.), but now he is in Colorado and I am absolutely chomping at the bit to get this guy on my team this year. And like I said in the intro, first base is incredibly shallow this year so taking Murphy as the 6th best first basemen could actually be a major steal. Murphy at Coors field could be a recipe for another batting title. I love Murphy here and would feel comfortable reaching for him in the 7th round, but he is going in the 8th right now.
7. Joey Votto CIN: Votto was once my top first basemen for almost four years straight. The guy is an on base machine and gave you HR’s, RBI, and Average to boot. Votto was my dream first basemen, but since this epic decline last year it has a lot of people giving up on the soon to be 36 year old. Votto’s home runs went from 36 in ’17 to 12(!) in ’18. Average from .320 to .284. And his OPA dropped from a Godly 1.032 to .837. All signs are pointing to older age regression bringing his fantasy value to an all time low. I still like Votto and would love drafting him, but not at his current ADP of mid 5th round. 6th or later is the move for him.
8. Jose Abreu CHW: Abreu is a guy who is a complete mystery to fantasy experts out there. The guy has all the tools he needs to be a breakout player, but he seems to never be able to take that next step. And in 2018 he took a step backward in terms of his OPS production. Leaving us to scratch our heads as to what to make of this guy. He is a lock for 25+ homeruns and 100 RBI when he is healthy and playing the majority of the season, which he wasn’t last year. I would spend a mid round pick on Abreu (late 6th to early 8th), but would not go any earlier. He is in a contract year and will most likely leave Chicago in 2020, providing incentive to have a big year for a big pay day.
9. Matt Carpenter STL: Carpenter won’t be playing much first base this year for St. Louis and this may mean he will lose his eligibility there for the 2020 season. Something to keep in mind if you are in a keeper or dynasty league. Carpenter is a OBP machine and anyone who has been playing fantasy baseball knows that. But last year he shocked the fantasy world by belting out 36 homeruns, a career high. obviously we will see some regression in this area, but he may have more opportunity to total up RBI’s in this new and improved lineup. His current ADP is #65 which I think is just about right for a guy you can plug into your lineup and kind of forget bout most of the year while he brings you in consistent numbers.
10. Edwin Encarnacion SEA: The former fantasy cornerstone has dropped down in the rankings over the years, just like his numbers have. That being said the 36 year old is still a very reliable guy to plug into the first base spot. Encarnacion has played at least 134 games and hit at least 30 homeruns in the last 7 seasons. He is also a lock for decent RBI output. With a #117 ADP he is going a little too early for me, but I would like to grab him in the 12th or 13th rounds, and keep an eye on him to drop so you can get him at an amazing price.
11. Joey Gallo TEX: Gallo is a polarizing type of player for experts in our industry to really give advice about. On one hand the guy has a massive strikeout number and an abysmal career .203 batting average. On the other hand he is a young budding star with incredibly power. Smashing 41 and 40 homers respectively the last 2 seasons. His ADP is around the 10th round this year which I think is perfect for Galo. Sign me the hell up for 40 homeruns and an 800+ OPS for a 10th round pick.
12. Max Muncy LAD: Muncy is one of my favorite players in this years draft. An absolute game changer for teams last year the 28 year old Muncy went undrafted in most leagues, but rewarded owners who took a flier on him in free agency with 35 home runs and a whopping .973 OPS. Muncy’s average is itself average, and his RBI total is nothing special, but Muncy is a guy who is just entering his prime. Muncy is projected as an 11th round pick right now, which would be an absolute steal in any draft!
13. Matt Olson OAK: Olsen was poised to be a big breakout player last year. After belting out 24 home runs in 59 games fantasy baseballers expected a monster season in the power department for the young A. He didn’t totally live up to the hype, but he did play all 162 games even though he only added just 5 home runs to his 2017 season hitting a total of just 29 last year. This year Olson is a nice pick up in the middle rounds with huge upside. Target him anywhere from late 11th to early 13th.
14. Jesus Aguilar MIL: The breakout campaign for Aguilar was impressive, but he did slow down once pitchers finally caught up to him. This is a guy going in the 8th and 9th rounds who will be on the waiver wire by the end of May. If he is around in the much later rounds (17-20) definitely take a flier on him. If not? Stay away.
15. Miguel Cabrera DET: The triple crown winning future Hall of Famer is a shell of his former self, and he STILL has more talent than most of the first basemen on this list. The issue now is Miggy’s conditioning and injury problems from last year. After slumping heavily in 2017 owners hoped he could rebound in 2018. After just 32 games his season was done due to a hamstring injury. I would take a flyer on Cabrera in the late rounds. Just for a chance to capture one last season of glory before the 36 year old calls it a career. the man is a legend, but do not reach for him in any round before the 16th.
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