Looking back at the 2021 season, the NFL lost some great young players to the whole season, as well as veterans who have dominated the game. Each week I am going to drop what to expect from these stars with this first segment being all about the Ravens lead RB.
Last year was extremely disappointing for JK Dobbins who was expected to elevate his game to near RB1 status. A Torn ACL held him back from just that after seeing his potential bloom in 2020. When you look at his overall stats in 2020, Dobbins finished as the 24th top RB in PPR. While that spells low end RB2 there is more to his story.
Through his first 9 games of his rookie campaign he sat outside the top 40 with stiff competition coming from Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and we must include Lamar. From Week 11 on you know the vibes were all love from JK as he scored a TD in every game while averaging the 10th most FPPG for RBs. What changed in that span? His workload behind a strong o-line. Dobbins was fed 10+ targets in just 2 games from weeks 1-10 while never sniffing less then 11 to close out the season. All of this is the past and means absolutely nothing for 2022. The question is what does the young promising back have in store now.
ACL tears are brutal for any player but for a RB is devastating. Luckily in recent years many backs can attest to recovering and succeeding thereafter. From Frank Gore to AP to Dalvin Cook, these guys went down and still had themselves hell of careers. I don’t think this injury will be any different for Dobbins as reports are he will be fully healthy for the start of 2022.
The Ravens offensive will have a different look and possibly different feel with rookie first round center Tyler Linderbaum as well as tackle Morgan Moses. The tale of the Ravens season last year was injuries and Anchor Ronnie Staley is still recovering from season-ending ankle surgery. Some are not projecting the Ravens o-line to be an upper echelon unit but they still possess the skill traits of an above average line while living and breathing by the rushing attack.
Dobbins competition is my guy Gus the BUS and recently signed Mike Davis. Dobbins clearly has the upper hand but if you look at the Ravens and Harbaughs sample size in recent years you know all backs get to eat. While I am confident Dobbins leads the backfield my concerns stem from 2 different areas.
Is Dobbins TD dominance from the end of 2020 sustainable? The Ravens offense was thriving in this time with even Lamar rushing for 4 TDs in that span as well as Hollywood Brown snatching 6 scores from week 12 on. Ingram and Bus were both involved in the offense in this time but I just find it hard to believe Dobbins will keep up that type of pace. Can it happen, possibly but we can’t bank on a TD a game pace considering how Baltimores RB rotation usually plays out.
My 2nd worry for Dobbins is his lack of involvement in the passing game. In 2020 Dobbins caught just 18 balls but that isn’t entirely his fault when you know who his QB is. Lamar is quick to result to rushing when needed for a couple of yards instead of working his backs in short passing opportunities. Dobbins led all backs in YPC in 2020 but will never have that same effect on the game through the air.
With all that said where do you value Dobbins? Young backs bounce back like nothing from these injuries but his usage in the passing game as well as RB rotation refuses me to place him as a top 10 RB this season. The running game plan as well as his physicality low-running rushing style behind a respectable offensive line will provide several positive impacts to fantasy lineups. He has great acceleration when he first hits the hole and takes it up a notch once he backs it to the second level of a defense. Before this injury Dobbins never missed a game in college or the pros which is promising considering how most RBs miss games just from stubbing toes. The Ravens schedule for RBs is encouraging which is an extra benefit. Dobbins ADP sits at 41 while he’s going off the board as the RB22 in PPR. I can’t pinpoint this early where I will be targeting Dobbins but will most likely be in the 16-19 range of RBs.
Let us know where you value Dobbins and tune in for my next blog when we break down Travis Etienne!