Antonio Gibson is a hot topic in the fantasy football community today. After his first pre-season game (I emphasize pre-season because it does not count!) where AG went for a massive 2 yards on 4 carries and fumbled it once, everyone is selling all of their stock in the University of Memphis product.
Let’s take a deep dive into the facts about Antonio Gibson and why most people are hating on him, and if you should draft him to your fantasy football team in 2022.
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The Good: Antonio Gibson is still the RB1 on the depth charter for The Commanders and whether people like it or not, that will not change heading into Week 1 of the NFL season. Gibson ran for 1037 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2021. That was good for 12 overall in PPR formats last season. As the 7th most used running back within the five yard line, Gibson has proven himself as a go to option for Ron Rivera and company. His ADP is currently 38 but that will easily dip into the 5th or 6th round after this past debacle over the weekend making him much more valuable as you are getting a career PPR low end RB1 with such a late pick.
Antonio Gibson’s teammates have his back too as tackle Charles Leno was certainly supportive of Gibson:
“He worked so hard I don’t think he’s dropped a ball at all anytime in camp, been working really hard for that,” Leno said. “Then he comes out, and this happens; you have to understand, recognize the situation, release, and refocus to get right back to it. Understand that that’s one play; it doesn’t have to happen again. Work on technique and understand the way he runs; we really appreciate how he runs; when he runs hard that ball doesn’t come out. Just making sure we keep attacking, don’t be passive.” (Lambert. Commander Wire)
The overall point is; this is Antonio Gibson’s job to lose.
The Bad: While Gibson has an intriguing skillset, the facts are the facts. He was supposed to break out into a clear cut fantasy football RB1 last year and did not. He led all non-QB’s in fumbles lost with 6 which is a lot for a running back who is limited to 1st and second downs. The resigning of JD Mckissic and the drafting of Brian Robinson out of Alabama in the 3rd round kind of cements Gibson status as a low volume running back going into 2022. Even though Mckissic is not a good runner at all, it should not be ignored that Ron Rivera said that they would look at the running game as a committee type of situation. This should definitely scare even the most loyal Antonio Gibson fans.
The Verdict: You are definitely shitting your pants now after just reading the bad stuff, but at the end of the day, Antonio Gibson is worth anywhere from a 4th to 6th round pick in your fantasy football league. Just because a team took a running back in the 3rd round doesn’t mean he is the heir apparent to the starting role throne. We saw this last year with the San Francisco 49ers drafting Trey Sermon who was drafted in the 3rd round and promptly benched for fellow rookie (who I love) Elijah Mitchell who was drafted 3 rounds behind Sermon in the 6th round. In fact this year, the Niners drafted another running back in the 3rd round. Are we hating on Elijah Thomas? No.
The fumbles are indeed an issue but hopefully they are a one year thing. Gibson only lost one fumble in 2022 and had a much increased workload in 2021. Maybe the Commanders can find the right balance but cutting some of Gibson’s workload, and making him more of an efficient weapon. Fantasy owners should not be concerned about Ron Rivera saying the team will pivot to a running back by committee strategy because most coaches in the NFL share the same sentiment. You will rarely hear a coach say sometihng to the effect of “this is our one and only running back and it is all on him”. They are increasingly looking at running backs like wide receivers. All of them get involved, and all of them are valued, but there is still only one that will be the guy. And I think when it comes to the Washington Commanders, Antonio Gibson is the running back to draft to your fantasy team.