Reports came out over the weekend that the New York Yankees were shopping Jacoby Ellsbury and the $63 million remaining on his deal to the San Francisco Giants for the injured Johnny Cueto and the $85 million left on his deal! On the surface this looks like a straight up swap of bad contracts. But lets take a deeper dive on why this trade would most likely bring Bryce Harper to The Bronx.
Ellsbury’s terrible Yankee tenure
Ellsbury has been nothing but a disappointment with the Yankees. Over the four seasons he actually played games his average was around .270 and his OPS has never broken out of the low to mid. 700’s. This isn’t too bad for a guy making $2 to $4 million a year. Not a guy who is making over $20 million a year! He was supposed to lock down center field for nearly a decade, but injuries and bad play have derailed that dream. This has gone down as one of the worst signings in Yankee history.
Johnny Cueto and his new Elbow
The former ace was derailed last year due to his need for the dreaded Tommy John surgery. The surgery was declared a success and his elbow is healing well, but Cueto will miss the entire 2019 season. Cueto can offer the Yankees a lot once he returns to 100% health. Come 2020 when he will presumably be ready to pitch again he could fill the role of CC Sabathia who is most likely in his final year with New York. A back end of the rotation veteran who knows what it takes to win a World Series title. A big game pitcher who has the resume to back up his swag. Cueto is the real deal and there is a reason why he got that monster deal from San Francisco. The only issue is his age, but after a successful tommy john surgery most pitchers thrive. Cueto could be a key piece to the Yankee future.
What this all means for Bryce to The Bronx?
Removing the Ellsbury contract and replacing it with Cueto’s monster deal won’t help the Yankees with their luxury tax concerns. But it would open a clear spot for Bryce Harper to join the team. Right now the Yankees have two outfielders they can actually count on. Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks. Judge is a top 10 player in the MLB while Hicks has made massive strides in a Yankee uniform, but is a free agent after this season. The Yankees also have Clint Frazier and a key locker room leader in Brett Gardner. But Frazier has never stayed healthy and at this point in his career Gardner is not an every day left fielder. I know some people will say Stanton is an OF and he is, obviously. But the man is a better DH than fieldrt and the Yankees want to do everything in their power to keep him at DH. As of this writing Ellsbury is indeed healthy. And the Yankees have no choice but to plug him in as their everyday CF or LF. With Ellsbury gone there would be a clear gap for Harper to come in and be that lefty bat the Yankees some desperately need in this lineup.
How would this effect the payroll?
Since Hal Steibrenner has taken over as the Yankees chairman, New York has spent big, but has been reluctant to reach for guys they normally would throw millions of dollars and years at. They are now more concerned about paying for the long term contracts of their young core. Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Gleyber Torres. And another monster deal has Yankee brass nervous and skeptical on how they could pay all of these guys.
In this trade scenario, the Yankees would receive Cueto from San Francisco and ship Ellsbury’s $63 million of their books and onto the Giants. Cueto is owed $83 million, but insurance would cover most if not all of his 2019 salary. It is important to note that this contract however will still count against the luxury tax. Which has been a sticking point of this new Yankee front office. That being said the Yankees would be saving the $21 million and not have to pay Cueto’s deal for this year. The Yankees payroll is sitting around $193 million right now. Third overall in the MLB behind the Cubs and Red Sox. The Yankees could afford to give Harper any amount of money he wanted. The truth is they are balking on the length of the deal. Cashman does not want to give Harper, Machado or anyone a deal over six years. They really don’t even want to go over three or four year deals right now. But the Yankees would be willing to give Harper a massive deal for a three to four year length. Something like $140 million for 4 years ($35 million a year). Would he consider it? Would he take less than half of the years he was offered by Washington, but more money annually? Nobody knows for sure. Harper has always wanted to be a Yankee. It is something he and his agent Scott Boras prefer to see happen. But only at the right price.
Harper’s fit in Yankee Stadium and the AL East
Harper and his front-loaded short-term mega-deal would be exactly what some Yankee fans have been begging for since the 2018 season ended. Harper would bring the Yankees his much needed lefty power bat and most likely hit anywhere from 35 to 55 home runs each season in New York. But lets get one thing straight here. Harper is indeed overrated. Some fans have been clamoring to trade Giancarlo Stanton and sign Bryce Harper. Stating that Giancarlo did not show up in the playoffs, and isn’t as good as his $300 million contract says he is. These people are just flat out wrong. They are the same people who would be clamoring to trade Harper this time next year if the Yankees didn’t win the World Series. In reality, Harper and Stanton have very similar numbers over their careers. They both have a career .900 OPS and similar averages, but Stanton has over 100 more homeruns than Harper! Please stop the Giancarlo Stanton slander. This guy is a stud, and yeah he is over paid, but he can still be a monster for New York over the next 5 years.
Having the two on the same team would seem redundant, but it would absolutley over power opposing pitchers. And that is the main reason why the Yankees would be interested in bring Harper in.
Will this happen? It is unlikely. But this is the blueprint the Yankees will follow to get Bryce to The Bronx. And as each day passes a major move is more and more likely.